The Seattle Times, not normally know for exposing big business, published
these Guest Columnists article. Phyllis
There is a chart with this article my server won't include: You can also
read online @
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2008170009_newdrillingop10
.html
Guest columnists
We can't drill our way out of oil dependency
THERE has been much debate between President Bush and Congress and
between the presidential candidates about removing the ban on offshore...
By James W. Murray and Jim Hansen
Special to The Times
Strategic Energy Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology :
THERE has been much debate between President Bush and Congress and
between the presidential candidates about removing the ban on offshore
drilling. This distracts us from what really needs to be done to reduce
our dependency on foreign oil. We need an emergency strategy for reducing
oil consumption now.
If the United States wants to reduce its oil dependency, it could do so
by immediately reducing the speed limit to 55 mph and increasing the
mileage rating of cars by 10 mpg. These two steps together would almost
eliminate our need for oil from Saudi Arabia.
And for the future, we need to set ourselves on a new energy path toward
the post-oil energy economics of the future. These policies should
include increased efficiency of vehicles, which should include mass
production of electric vehicles, tax breaks for increased efficiencies in
households and businesses, a renaissance of nuclear power, expansion of
renewable energy sources and development of solar electrical production.
It is wishful thinking that offshore drilling will make oil more
plentiful and bring down the price. Bush recently stated offshore
drilling could yield up to 18 billion barrels of oil. This estimate is
unverifiable, as seismic surveys with modern technology have not been run
in most of the outer continental shelf to see if there are any
oil-trapping structures, and test wells have not been drilled to see if
the structures that might exist have any oil.
Such drilling will not happen soon, as all the world's deep-water oil
rigs are already reserved for the next five years. Oil companies already
have leases for many desirable sites but they are not developing them.
Ironically, they have needed the current high price of oil to make them
economic.
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is related but different. It
is not on the outer continental shelf but is in a region difficult to
develop because of its climate. It has also not yet been explored for
geological structures using modern technology or tested with wells to see
if any structures have oil.
Based on comparisons with other regions, the U.S. Geological Survey
estimated that there is a 95 percent probability that there are 5.7
billion barrels of technically recoverable but undiscovered oil in the
ANWR. First production is estimated to be nine to 12 years from permit
approval. Peak production was estimated to be 0.6 to 1.9 million barrels
of oil per day after 20 to 30 years.
Finally, unless the United States nationalizes its oil companies, any new
oil produced would go on the global market and would not necessarily stay
in the U.S. The price of oil, which is set on the international trading
market, would be barely affected. According to an Energy Information
Administration report on ANWAR requested by Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska
and released in May, the impact on future oil prices would be minimal.
The history of U.S. oil production is shown in the accompanying chart.
The contribution from ANWR will neither remove our dependence on foreign
oil nor enable the U.S. to continue its current level of consumption,
which is about 21 million barrels of oil per day.
The U.S. needs to move on beyond the debate of whether to drill or not
and focus its effort on mitigation and solutions to the real oil crisis
we face: constrained liquid fuel.
James W. Murray, left, is a professor in the University of Washington's
School of Oceanography and founding director of the UW Program on Climate
Change. Jim Hansen, an investment adviser, is a member of the Association
for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.
Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company
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