mb/d means million barrels per day. Interesting article.
Tom
Quote:
"Finally it may be of interest to recapitulate that the International Energy
Agency claims that 37 mb/d of unconventional oil must be produced by 2030.
Canada has by far the largest unconventional oil reserves. By 2030, in a
very optimistic scenario, Canada may produce 5 mb/d. Venezuela may perhaps
achieve a production of 6 mb/d. Who will be the producers of the remaining
26 mb/d? It is obvious that the forecast presented by the IEA has no basis
in reality."
==========================================================
Subj: [GWTF] Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil - ASPO
Date: 6/13/2006 3:11:08 AM Central Daylight Time
From: [log in to unmask] (Darrell Clarke)
Sender: [log in to unmask] (Global Warming/Clean
Energy Task Force)
Reply-to: <A HREF="mailto:[log in to unmask]">[log in to unmask]</A> (Global Warming/Clean
Energy Task Force)
To: [log in to unmask]
Canadian "tar sands" are on the short-list of alternatives to conventional
oil. They are also an example of what NOT to do environmentally -- CO2
emissions, huge natural gas and water consumption, and perhaps even greater
damage to the land than from coal mining. They also appear to not be able to
ramp up very far in quantity, per this report.
Darrell
Angeles Chapter
----------------------------------------------
http://www.energybulletin.net/16949.html
Published on 8 Jun 2006 by ASPO. Archived on 11 Jun 2006.
Canada’s oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil
by Söderbergh, Robelius and Aleklett
The Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University, Sweden,
has made a study of a crash program scenario for the Canadian Oil Sand
Industry. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada’s oil sands will not
prevent Peak Oil. If a crash program were immediately implemented it may
only barely offset the combined declining conventional crude oil production
in Canada and the North Sea. The article has been accepted by the magazine
Energy Policy.
Summary of the article “A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands
Industry” [PDF] http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/20060608EPOSArticlePdf.pdf by
Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius and Kjell Aleklett:
----------------------------------------------
The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk
Management [PDF], by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is
going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are
necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy.
These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash program
production, from Canada’s oil sands.
The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production
levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash program for the
Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050.
The implementation of a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry is
associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of
natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today’s
dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for
upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations
under the Kyoto treaty.
For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear
facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very
optimistic scenario Canada’s oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A
short-term crash program from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about
3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term Crash program results in a production of
approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.
Unfortunately, while the theoretical future oil supply from the oil sands is
huge, the potential ability for the Canadian oil sands industry to meet
expectations of bridging a future oil supply gap is not based on reality.
Even if a Canadian crash program were immediately implemented it may only
barely offset the combined declining conventional crude oil production in
Canada and the North Sea. The more long-term oil sands production scenario
outlined in this report, does not even manage to compensate for the decline
by 2030. Today, world wide, there are many oil producing areas in decline
whose productions have to be offset by new production. With the exception of
ultra-deep off shore fields, of the world’s 65 oil-producing countries, 54
have passed their peak production and are in a state of continuous decline.
There are some areas that need the immediate attention by the world’s energy
planners. Firstly, the future for the Canadian in situ oil sands production.
How much can these activities grow without serious fuel costs problems as
well as accelerating CO2E-emissions arise?
Secondly, how effective will large scale SAGD in situ projects be for
reservoirs of lower quality?
Thirdly, is it realistic to include the construction of nuclear facilities
for input energy for oil sands projects when making production forecasts? If
not, how is the energy going to be provided and how much additional energy
supply will be needed in order to extract the bitumen at the required high
production levels? The Hirsch report has shown that the Canadian oil sands
resources play a vital role for future energy planning, thus it is of
outmost importance that these questions are thoroughly investigated as soon
as possible.
Finally it may be of interest to recapitulate that the International Energy
Agency claims that 37 mb/d of unconventional oil must be produced by 2030.
Canada has by far the largest unconventional oil reserves. By 2030, in a
very optimistic scenario, Canada may produce 5 mb/d. Venezuela may perhaps
achieve a production of 6 mb/d. Who will be the producers of the remaining
26 mb/d? It is obvious that the forecast presented by the IEA has no basis
in reality.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Submitted by report co-author Kjell Aleklett.
The full report is a 46-page PDF.
-BA
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