Oil And Gas Journal Expects Acute Crisis After 2005
"..... a sequence of supply crises [is] likely to develop not when oil 
production peaks - the subject of much recent controversy - but earlier, when 
widening gaps appear between demand and sources of supply upon which the world has 
come to rely....  it is a mistake to assume that reserves of conventional oil 
can grow indefinitely and that abundant resources of unconventional oil 
resources, such as tar sands, can fully compensate for production declines. There is 
a fundamental difference between producing oil from a naturally flowing well 
and mining tar sands in Venezuela or Canada.... the feedback of tightening 
supplies through rising oil price will reduce demand growth and stimulate 
conservation and the development of alternative supply options. However, the crises 
will be real enough as markets rarely anticipate surprises, and many years will 
pass before material changes in behaviour and alternative energy sources 
significantly impact demand for oil..... The failure of non-OPEC to meet a large 
part of incremental demand, as it has done for more than 20 years, is likely to 
precipitate the first crisis in oil supply. Depending on demand and FSU 
[Former Soviet Union] supply, this crisis is practically upon us and is expected to 
be acute after 2005.... "
Oil supply challenges - 1: The non-OPEC decline
<A HREF="http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/DOEreportpeakoil.htm#Non-OPEC">Oil and Gas Journal, 21 February 2005</A>


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