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Boom to bust in 3 seasons
Norfolk Genetic Information Network (ngin)
http://members.tripod.com/~ngin
...
http://www.connectotel.com/gmfood/cd270700.txt
>From boom to bust in three seasons -
>the rapid rise and fall of GE markets
> by Dr. Christine Dann for the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand
1996 was the first year in which economically significant amounts of GE
food crops were first grown in the world. Most of them were planted in
the USA. By 1999 33% of US corn (maize) acres, 44% of soybean acres and
55% of cotton acres were planted with GE seed (St Louis Dispatch,
23.5.99). US farmers had obviously embraced the technology
enthusiastically. Unfortunately for them, they did so largely in
ignorance of the actual performance of GE seed, and of the market
demand. They believed what the GE seed and agrochemical producers and
suppliers told them about the agricultural and economic performance of
their products. As the bullet point history of the rise and fall of GE
markets given below proves - they were conned. Farmers in the rest of
the world need to learn the lesson, and not be sucked into the brave new
world of GE lies and half-truths.
The story of the fall of GE markets is woven from the threads of market
manipulation, international trade regulation, consumer resistance,
retailer initiatives, decline in investor confidence, and things going
wrong down on the farm. It is difficult to separate the strands, as they
all impact on each other. The following points trace these strands from
the beginning of 1999, when the boom started to go bust.
January 1999
· Monsanto lays off staff, its stock price falls, and it faces more
lawsuits by farmers unhappy with the performance of its GE seed
· Swiss Re, a major reinsurance company, advises that insurance
companies are 'over-exposed' to GE claims; Lloyds advises other
insurance companies to charge special premiums to insure GE crops
· Monsanto is suing 525 farmers for planting its seed 'illegally',
including a farmer who claims he did not plant the seed and that his
crops were contaminated by wind-blown GE pollen
· A Time magazine poll finds that 81% of respondents want GE foods
labelled
February 1999
· Major French supermarket chain, Carrefours, bans GE ingredients from
own-brand food and removes other GE foods from sale
· British supermarket chains Iceland, Sainsbury, Waitrose, the Co-Op,
Marks and Spencer and Asda go GE free
March 1999
· A consortium of European supermarket chains (UK- Sainsbury and Marks
and Spencer; France - Carrefours; Italy - Effelunga; Switxerland -
Migros; Belgium - Delhainze; Ireland - Superquinn) is set up to jointly
source non-GE foods
April 1999
· No new GE products have been approved by the EU since April 1998, and
four new applications are deadlocked
· Greece has a total freeze on experimental and commercial growing of GE
crops, other EU countries have partial bans on growing, selling and/or
experimenting
· Unilever, the world's largest food manufacturer (annual turnover 35
billion pounds sterling) announces it is going GE free.
· Nestlé and Cadbury-Schweppes go GE free
· The last large British supermarket not yet GE free, Tesco, goes GE
free
· The GE free supermarkets in Europe now have considerable market power
- a joint annual turnover of $150 billion*
· The third largest US corn processor, A.E. Staley Co, announces that it
will refuse GE corn not approved by the EU
May 1999
· Giant US agri-food company Archer Daniels Midland sets up GE-free
elevators, announces that it wants farmers to separate GE and non-GE
harvests at source, and offers a premium for non-GE soybeans
· Monsanto sets up a toll-free line to advise farmers which elevators
will accept GE crops
· Commodity prices remain low, and economists warn that as surpluses
grow, prices will fall
· Religious groups (Christian, Jewish, Hindu, Buddhist) sign on to a $30
million law suit against the US government, which demands that the Food
and Drug Authority classifies genes used to alter foods as additives and
tests them more rigorously
· The Supreme Court of India upholds a ban on testing GE crops
June 1999
· Northern Foods, one of the largest food companies in the UK, goes GE
free, as do Walkers crisps and Kellogg's cereals
· Rank Hovis McDougall announces it will stop using GE soyflour in its
breads
· By now 24 of the 30 largest food companies in the UK are GE free
· In Brazil a judge upholds the precautionary principle ands confirms a
ban on planting and marketing GE soy
· EU Ministers for the Environment announce a factual ban on any new
approvals for the commercial release of GMOs, until strict environmental
standards can be set
July 1999
· A US Department of Agriculture survey of GE crop performance is
released, and shows that yields are not consistently higher and may be
lower, and that herbicide and pesticide use is not always less. Profits
were also variable.
· Three US baby food manufacturers go GE free
· American trust-busting lawyer David Boies (leader of the successful US
Justice Department prosecution of Microsoft) announces that he is
considering taking a case for farmers against the anti-competitive
behaviour of the major biotechnology companies
· The Advertising Standards Authority in the UK upholds complaints
against Monsanto for misleading claims about its GE products
· US agri-food giant company ConAgra buys a GE-free health food company,
and takes ownership of several GE-free website names e.g. no-gmo.com
August 1999
· Deustche Bank investment analysts note that the GE market is going
bust, and that premiums are being paid for non-GE not GE crops. They
advise investors to sell their Pioneer Hi-Bred stock, and not to invest
in GE stock generally
· US lobbying of foreign food regulatory agencies against labelling GE
foods continues, and is successful in slowing down and watering down
ANZFA
proposals on labelling
· In Japan the two largest breweries go GE free; in Mexico a major
tortilla corn chip manufacturer goes GE free
· US pet food company Iams stops using non-EU approved corn in its cat
and dog foods
· A University of Nebraska survey finds that only 36% of rural
Nebraskans favour using GE seed
September 1999
· As the US harvest comes in, mid-western grain merchants offer 20-30
cents premium per bushel on non-GE soybeans and 8-15 cents premium on
non-GE corn
· Of 100 mid-western grain elevators surveyed, 11% were segregating corn
and 8% segregating soybeans
October 1999
· Thailand's Trade Minister (and WTO head-in-waiting) Supachai
Panitchpakdi
announces an indefinite ban on importing GE seed to Thailand
· Monsanto stock has lost a third of its value in the past year
November 1999
· A bi-partisan bill requiring full labelling of GE foods and supported
by 20 legislators goes to the US Congress
· The Alliance for Better Foods (ABF), a lobbying organisations
consisting of US pro-GE food manufacturers and retailers, reports that
in the first nine months of 1999 it spent $676,000 in contributions to
US politicians
· Member companies of ABF spent a combined $43.3 million in campaign
contributions during the 1998 US election cycle; Monsanto, DuPont and
Novartis spent more than $6 million on lobbying in 1998
· US-based genetic analysis company Genetic ID claims Australia could
earn a $1 billion share of the world GE-free food market if it moves
judiciously on the issue
· The US National Family Farm Coalition, a coalition of small farmer
organisations, issues 'The Farmers' Declaration on Genetic Engineering
in Agriculture', which demands an end to the sale, environmental release
and
further production of GE seeds and agriculture products until and
independent and comprehensive assessment of the social, environmental,
health and economic aspects of these products has been made
· Uncertain about market prospects and crop handling requirements for
2000, US farmers are confused about whether to order GE seed, and many
decide against it
December 1999
· Brazil, the world's second largest soybean producer, offers farmers
$5.37 million in low interest loans to pull out GE soy seedlings and
replant with non-GE varieties (as an alternative to burning illegal
crops)
· Brazil's exports of non GE soybeans to the Europe rose from 10,135
million tonnes in 1996 to 15,130 million tonnes in 1998; the USA's soy
exports to Europe dropped from 8.854 million tonnes in 1996 to 6.572
million tonnes in 1998
· The value of US soy exports to Europe dropped from $2.1 billion in
1996 to $1.1 billion in 1999
· Britains's last Christmas with GE turkeys looms as UK supermarkets
start sourcing meat, eggs and dairy products from animals that have not
been fed GE grain
· American and British shareholders in major food companies such as
Heinz, Coca-Cola, Safeway, Pillsbury, Burger King. ADM, Philip Morris,
Sara Lee
and McDonalds join a campaign co-ordinated by the Interfaith Center on
Corporate Responsibility to get the companies to out a moratorium on GE
ingredients and products until proper testing has been done
· Credit Suisse First Boston reports that the biotech industry is
suffering from 'negative momentum' and compares it to the nuclear power
industry - the science might be sound but no one is building new nuclear
plants today.
January 2000
· A Reuters straw poll of 400 US farmers at the annual meeting of the
largest US farm organisation, the American Farm Bureau Federation,
indicates a drop in GE food crops for 2000 - 15% less GE soy, 22-24%
less GE corn.
· Major US corn processor Frito-Lay tells its suppliers not to grow GE
corn
· The UN Biosafety Protocol is signed in Montreal, and provides for
stricter national and international controls on producing and trading in
GMOs
· Deutsche Bank reports that biotech company stock is still a bear
market, and the predicted two-tier market for GE and non-GE corn and soy
has developed, with non-GE attracting the premium
February 2000
· Germany's Minister of Health suspends approval for Novartis Bt corn on
the grounds that it is necessary to protect consumers and defend
precautionary health protection
· Market rejection of Bt corn cost US farmers $200 million in lost
export revenue in 1999
· Minnesota introduces a bill to place a moratorium on GE crop growing
in Minnesota
· American soy farmers try and persuade Monsanto to refund the
difference between the price of GE soy seed in the USA and Argentina -
between $300-$600 million
· A survey of 1,200 US grain elevators estimates that 24% are planning
to segregate GE corn and 20% will segregate soybeans in the fall of 2000
(up from 11% and 8% in 1999), and slightly more than one in ten
elevators will offer a price premium for non-GE products
March 2000
· A group of transnational biotech industry companies (DuPont, Monsanto,
Dow Chemical, AstraZeneca, Aventis, BASF, Novartis, and other smaller
companies) award a $50 million contract to PR firm BSMG Worldwide to
develop and run a 3-5 year advertising and communications campaign to
promote GE foods as safe for humans and not harmful to the environment
· Top American chefs start ridding their restaurants of GE foods
· American corn farmers advise their Filipino counterparts not to grow
GE corn
· A European Union Directorate-General for Agriculture study of the
economic impacts of GE summarises American studies which show that GE
crops exhibit variable profitability, and that profitability depends on
market as well as farm conditions, hence the future profitability of GE
is hard to predict. It also notes that GE soybeans attract the same
subsidies (aka flexibility payments, marketing loans and crop insurance)
as non-GE beans, and that marketing loan benefits averaged 44 cents a
bushel in 1998. Oilseed producers are also likely to be eligible for
emergency payments averaging 14 cents a bushel in 2000 to offset record
low market prices.
April 2000
· A major Coca-Cola shareholder (William Wardlaw III, with 2,020,682
shares worth $98 million) sponsors a resolution for Coke to go GE free
· US farmers start to report GE plants appearing as weeds in their
fields
· First US supermarket chain - Genuardi's Family Markets - goes GE-free
and supports labelling of GE products
· US Department of Agriculture predicts a 25% drop in GE corn harvest
· GE papaya grown in Hawaii is rejected by Japanese, Canadian and
European markets; growers get a 300-700% premium on non-GE fruit
· McDonalds burger chain stops using GE french-fries, and McDonalds
suppliers instruct growers to stop growing GE spuds
· Frito-Lay stops making GE potato chips
· Burger King reassures customers that it does not use GE french-fries
May 2000
· Archer Daniels Midland offers 18 cents per bushel premium on a non-GE
variety of soybean
· The Tokyo Grain Exchange launches a non-GE soybean futures market
June 2000
· 310 scientists from developed and developing countries sign a letter
to delegates to the fifth Conference of the Parties on the Convention on
Biological Diversity in Kenya calling for an immediate suspension on the
release of GE crops and products for at least five years, and for all
patents of living processes, organisms, seeds, cell lines and genes to
be revoked and banned
· A major independent worldwide research study by Angus Reid Group on
consumer reaction to GE foods finds that opposition to GE foods has
risen to 51% of consumers in the USA, 59% in Canada, 71% in France, 73%
in Germany and 82% in Japan. Opposition to GE foods is higher in
countries where respondents feel they understand more about genetic
engineering of food and lower in countries where consumers feel they do
not know much and need to know more.
· GE canola in Canada found to be resistant to three commonly-used
herbicides as a result of crossing in the field, adding to the growing
problem of herbicide resistance
· The US National Science Foundation's Science and Engineering
indicators survey finds that well-educated Americans (college graduates)
are more likely to oppose GE than the poorly educated, and that women
are more likely to be sceptical about GE than men
· Canadian farmer Percy Schmeiser, sued by Monsanto for allegedly
planting its GE canola illegally, countersues demanding 4.2 million
pounds sterling compensation for trespass, crop contamination and
defamation.
· A survey of US corn growers shows that over half are concerned that
they will be held liable for contaminating non-GE crops through
cross-pollination, and over two thirds are concerned that they will have
to bear the costs of segregating GE from non-GE corn and will plant less
GE corn if they have to segregate
· Swedish pharmaceutical company Pharmacia buys Monsanto and tries to
sell off the agricultural (GE seed) division
· The Prime Minister of New Zealand says that, contrary to the claims of
industry and the Australian Prime Minister, a KPMG study shows that full
labelling of GE foods would add only 0.19% to the total food bill
July 2000
· A US Department of Agriculture survey suggests that GE acreage in 2000
is down from 1999 - 20% for corn and 6% for soybeans
· The Tokyo Grain Exchange non-GE soy futures market booms, with almost
three times as many non-GE contracts being traded as GE ones. Prices for
the non-GE beans are 9-10% above GE beans.
· Non-GE papaya growers in Hawaii start labelling their fruit 'Not
Genetically Modified' to take advantage of non-GE premiums running as
high as 700%
· All dollars quoted are US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Information in this history comes from media releases, research reports
and other documentation posted on the following website addresses:
www.purefood.org
www.biotech-info.net
www.ers.usda.gov
www.agbioforum.missouri.edu/vol2no34/
www.prwatch.org/prw_issues/1999-Q4/
www.europa.eu.int/comm/dg06/publi/gmo/
A fully referenced paper incorporating this information and containing
further analysis of global food markets will be available in November
2000.
> From boom to bust in three seasons -
> the rapid rise and fall of GE markets
> by Dr. Christine Dann
> for the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand
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