Dennis Keeney is the former director of the Leopold Center.  I think you will 
find this article interesting.
 
Wally Taylor
 
 
WHY THE SUDDEN FOOD CRISIS? – by Dennis Keeney  
The world has witnessed with concern the sudden increase in food prices and 
decrease in availability of food staples, especially in low-income, food-short 
countries. 
Rising prices hit hard at the world's poorest people, who are spending as 
much as 80 percent of their income on food. These price increases are sentencing 
as many as 100 million more people to hunger and poverty. Arrows are being 
slung back and forth about the cause of the "food crisis." Some place the blame 
on more affluent emerging countries, particularly China and India. Others blame 
weather disasters, particularly drought in the wheat-growing regions of China 
and Australia. And now the nation and the world must cope with the disastrous 
floods hitting the heart of corn and soybean country in the United States. 
What is the truth? Will we ever sort out what brought on the "silent tsunami" 
– a term used recently by World Food Program director Josette Sheeran? One 
thing is for sure: It's doubtful that rising food prices will come back down 
soon, if ever. In our human way, we want to find reasons and blame those 
responsible. Let us not forget: At least 35 million Americans (12 million households) 
were short of food in 2002, even though our food was still cheap compared to 
prices in Europe. 
The basis of the problem lies with us, a society that assumes food comes from 
a grocery store and that we could easily feed everyone who comes in the door. 
We believe we can always push the pump handle harder by improving the 
genetics of our crops, growing on more acres by using land now protected for 
conservation, increasing irrigation and moving to highly "efficient" farming methods 
that rely on nitrogen and other fertilizers, pesticides and genetically 
engineered crops. But without good weather, these technological fixes wither in the 
wind. And the challenges are far different in countries struggling to feed 
their own. 
From 1798 to 1826, British economist and demographer Robert Malthus produced 
a series of essays on the relation between population and food supply. In 
essence, he said that the rate of population growth would be exponential, while 
food supply will increase linearly. In other words, sooner or later there will 
be more people than food. Of course, in 1800 he had no concept of the ability 
of technology to increase the supply of food, so the "Malthusian hypothesis" 
has not yet hit the Earth. But many think it is only a matter of time, while 
others feel we can still work through this with technology. 
Few are ready to talk about the carrying capacity of Earth and whether we are 
exceeding it. Perhaps the time has come to realize that Earth is close to 
being stressed beyond its ability to support the people inhabiting it. It is not 
just the food we grow, but the damage we are causing to the land by 
over-farming, the addition of pollutants to the atmosphere bringing on rapid climate 
change, and the now-generation approach that we must have it all. We have not 
grasped the concept of sustainability. 
There are ways to work out of this trap, but the going will be tough. Local 
foods must be emphasized worldwide. We must find ways for people in poor 
countries to again grow their own food -- and make enough extra to earn a 
respectable income. 
Climate change is with us, so we must learn to address it while finding ways 
to slow the use of the atmosphere as a common dumping ground. And rather than 
blaming developing nations that try to be more like us, we should turn our 
lifestyles around. If the United States can show ways to live sustainably, "more 
like us" will be a more sustainable world. 
This lifestyle must include markedly less use of fossil fuels. The wise 
development of unused natural resources for fuels and materials for a sustainable 
lifestyle would help take us off the path of peak oil and toxic chemicals. 
Even if all goes well, it will be a long climb back to the happy, comfortable 
world we knew just a few years ago. 
For more than 200 years scientists, demographers and policymakers have been 
dismissing Malthus. Now we must take him seriously. 
-- 
Dr. Dennis Keeney is a senior fellow, Institute for Agriculture and Trade 
Policy. The Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy's, headquartered in 
Minneapolis, is a policy research center committed to creating environmentally and 
economically sustainable rural communities and regions through sound 
agriculture and trade policy. _www.iatp.org_ (http://www.iatp.org/)  



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