Quote:
Mr. Greene said he is an optimist, but reckoned that we have 10 years,
and said that he's moving soon from Toronto to France because he's
convinced that "the European dream will speak to how things play out
in the 21st century, more than the American, which was a 20th-century
dream." His collaborator, Mr. Silverthorn, is moving to rural Ontario
to learn his ancestors' farming skills.
================
Subj: End of Suburbia doc makes NY Times (fwd)
Date: 3/13/2005 11:04:21 PM Central Standard Time
From: [log in to unmask] (Anton H. Turrittin)
Sender: [log in to unmask] (Transportation
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FYI.
Tony Turrittin, Dept. of Sociology, Arts, Vari Hall,
York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.
Office: 416-736-5015, ext. 60316; Fax: 416-746-5730.
Home: 26 Robina Avenue, Toronto, ON M6C 3Y6, Canada
Tel: 416-653-4002; Fax: 416-653-0607 (call first)
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 23:29:52 -0800
From: Jim <[log in to unmask]>
To: Canada energy <[log in to unmask]>,
energy group <[log in to unmask]>,
energy group 2 <[log in to unmask]>,
energy group 3 <[log in to unmask]>, [log in to unmask]
Subject: End of Suburbia doc makes NY Times
Peak Oil output that is coming soon is in the limelight for understanding
the future of suburbs--that means cities too. J
Energy Resources Digest 3747 Message: 1
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2005 18:28:41 -0800
Subject: New York Times: Running on Empty
The New York Times
March 13, 2005
Running on Empty
By NATALIE CANAVOR
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/13/nyregion/13LI.html?oref=login
IF the cost of energy skyrockets, are the suburbs doomed? Would Long
Island, already paying among the highest fuel and electricity rates in
the country, become an unsustainably expensive place to live?
A way of thinking that says "yes" is circulating, and has assumed
tangible form in a video called "The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion
and the Collapse of the American Dream." Made in Toronto [NOTE] by the
independent producers Gregory Greene and Barry Silverthorn, it
explores the idea that the world is running out of cheap petrofuels
and predicts the utter ruin of North America's suburbs - and not in
the distant future, but somewhere between 5 and 25 years from now.
The video was screened last month at Molloy College in Rockville
Centre, under the sponsorship of Long Island Neighborhood Network, an
environmental advocacy group, and Vision Long Island, an organization
that promotes the "new urbanism" or "smart growth" philosophy, which
favors high-density, mixed-use, work-where-you-live downtowns over the
classic low-density, home-with-a-yard model of suburbia.
The video opens with nostalgic clips of the early days of suburbia -
excited young couples holding boxy little home models, families piling
up their shopping carts, neat little back yards - and asserts that the
new sprawl pattern, totally dependent on the automobile, became
synonymous with the American dream. It also represents, in the words
of a featured commentator, James Howard Kunstler, "the greatest
misallocation of resources in the history of the world. America took
all its postwar wealth and invested it in a living arrangement that
has no future."
In this view the 21st-century poison is peak oil theory {NOTE BENE], the
idea that
the world has reached its maximum oil production or soon will, and
that we are entering a period when escalating energy costs will make
the suburban lifestyle untenable. The case is made by assorted
geologists, professors, writers and oil industry pundits, but most
notably Mr. Kunstler, a new urbanist whose book "Geography of Nowhere"
is a strident criticism of suburbia.
As envisioned by Messrs. Greene and Silverthorn, the consequences go
way beyond violence at the gas pump to include: unending economic
depression, with radical downsizing of everything from manufacturing
to education; a slump in food production because of soil degradation,
lack of oil-based fertilizers and skyrocketing shipping costs;
political upheavals; the election of demagogues; and global conflict
as the United States tries by military means to maintain its
disproportionate consumption of the world's oil. The filmmakers see
the American suburbs as the slums of the future where people are
desperately relearning how to grow their own food.
"I do see a lot of potential for darkness," Mr. Kunstler comments.
"There'll be a great scramble to get out of the suburbs, a sort of
fight over the table scraps of the 20th century."
The video's original footage was shot near Toronto and various areas
of the United States, and in fact the suburbs all do look remarkably
alike. Mr. Greene said in a telephone interview that no shooting was
done on Long Island, but that he had heard of Levittown.
Mr. Kunstler, whose ideas form the backbone of "End of Suburbia,"
lived in Roslyn for three years as a child beginning in 1954 and
visited regularly thereafter. "Certainly my impressions were shaped
there," he said. "That part of the Island was only beginning to be
destroyed and I actually watched the process vividly as the estate
that ran behind my back yard was turned into a cul de sac subdivision.
The experience stayed with me."
Following the screening was a discussion period. "Is this where we get
out the purple Kool-Aid?" asked Eric Alexander, executive director of
Vision Long Island.
The audience of about 50 in the auditorium in Rockville Centre, in the
heart of what is often described as the first suburb, was
enthusiastic, in a shell-shocked sort of way. Since most in attendance
had gotten wind of the screening via environmentalist networking
channels, they tended to find reinforcement for their own beliefs
rather than reason to question the basic premises. There were comments
about the need to grow our own food, create new lifestyle models on
the Island, fight nimbyism and conserve energy in both large-scale and
personal ways.
In the bleak future projected by the film, the only glimpse of hope is
new urbanism. This is the philosophy that drives Vision Long Island.
"We were laughed at when we started in 1997," Mr. Alexander said. His
group is engaged in half a dozen projects around the Island advancing
a smart-growth agenda. But one of the barriers he sees is that too few
people are "aware of or thinking about alternatives in every form," so
the film's value is in mobilizing people.
"It's a little jolt to the system," he said, "important because we
can't get complacent intellectually or practically."
For some, a post-carbon age can't come soon enough. Gordian Raacke,
executive director of Renewable Energy Long Island, said: "It doesn't
matter which comes first, running out of oil and other cheap fossil
fuel sources, or out of places to dump our pollution. We have problems
caused by our consuming patterns and addiction to polluting fossil
fuels and have to immediately change our course, realizing we're
affecting our own quality of life and changing the climate of the
whole planet."
Mr. Raacke said that moving rapidly toward clean energy such as wind
and solar is crucial. "I think we are at a tipping point," he said.
"Renewable energy is moving into the spotlight as the obvious
solution. It's a matter of political will."
Richard M. Kessel, chairman of the Long Island Power Authority,
essentially agreed. "Long Island and this region are clearly too
dependent on oil not just to produce electricity but all types of
activities," he said. "Over 90 percent of our electricity is produced
with oil and natural gas, and both are finite resources. I'm not sure
I subscribe to the notion that we'll run out in two decades, but if we
don't figure out a way - not just Long Island but the whole country -
to reduce our dependence on oil, we will have long-term devastating
consequences."
LIPA's investment in windmill energy and fuel cell technology reflects
this viewpoint, Mr. Kessel said.
But "The End of Suburbia" is dismissive of alternative energy source
development. "No combination of alternative energy systems will allow
us to run what we are running," Mr. Kunstler said in a telephone
interview. "If by some miracle we developed an energy system as potent
as our fossil fuels, at the very least it would not come about before
we went through a punishing and prolonged period of economic hardship,
and personally I think the losses would be so great we might not even
be able to gear up a system like this again."
Not everyone agrees, of course, that we are actually in near danger of
running out of relatively cheap petrofuels. "The theory that suburbia
will collapse because the era of inexpensive gas is over is a very
premature and dark prediction," said Richard Guardino, the former
Hempstead town supervisor who is now dean of the Center for Suburban
Studies at Hofstra University. "I think people will be very creative
and are already finding new alternatives, but you can debate whether
things are happening at the urgency they must."
Matthew C. Cordaro, director of the C. W. Post/Long Island University
Center for Management Analysis and a former Lilco executive, said that
even projecting factors like the growth of China, there's still enough
oil for 60 to 80 years, perhaps 100. We have almost unlimited amounts
of energy around the earth, he said, when resources like coal (which
can be converted to natural gas), hydrogen and uranium are taken into
account. "It's very difficult for me to conceive of skyrocketing
unaffordability given this trend," he said, "because you can produce
electricity from a lot of sources of fuel and easily distribute it."
"Prices will increase - that you can count on, like death and taxes -
but not disproportionately," Dr. Cordaro said. "Competitive forces
will hold them in check."
David Manning, senior vice president for corporate affairs at Keyspan
and formerly Canada's deputy energy minister, also said economic
forces will protect us from disaster. "What we're seeing is that the
economy is continuing to run and grow even at $50 per barrel for oil,"
he said. "At that price we're bringing along new resources that would
have been unaffordable, such as the oil sands of western Canada."
But Mr. Manning had a warning. "Knowing there's still an abundant
supply of energy doesn't mean we're using it wisely," he said. "So how
can Long Island leadership make the right decisions about efficiency,
invest dollars in the infrastructure?"
That's a central question for Ernest Fazio, chairman of Long Island
Mid-Suffolk Business Action, which involves itself in economic and
transportation issues. He said the first responses to the oil shock of
the early 1970's, including the switch to smaller cars, evolved into
"better methods in every area, because we became attuned to energy
being a more costly product." That we have backslid to larger cars and
bigger houses he finds "an aggravating fact."
Significant efficiency could be achieved on Long Island, according to
Dr. Cordaro's Center for Policy Analysis, by re-engineering the three
largest of Long Island's aging generators - Northport, Port Jefferson
and Island Park. This could triple their electricity output while
radically reducing harmful emissions, according to the center's
analysis.
Governor Pataki's energy guidelines require the state to get almost 25
percent of its electric needs from renewable, environmentally friendly
sources by 2013. Just last week, Nassau legislators passed a
resolution that commits the county to meeting a similar 25 percent
goal by 2010.
A developer has been selected for the Offshore Wind Project, a wind
generator farm to be located southwest of Robert Moses State Park,
with the hope of generating 140 megawatts of electricity, enough to
power about 44,000 homes. "This will be the first offshore wind
project in North America," Mr. Kessel said, "and there are real
challenges with costs, with permitting. But we have to do it."
Also, a request for proposals has been issued for a 10-megawatt fuel
cell plant. Fuel cells are devices that use the chemical energy of
hydrogen to produce electricity, and may prove a superior way to power
vehicles electrically, as well as for heating, cooling, and general
electrical supply.
"We have to aggressively pursue renewable technology," Mr. Kessel
said. "Looked at in isolation, these projects are not economical.
Powering homes through wind costs more now, but over the long term, if
you subscribe to the notion that oil and gas won't be here forever,
and will continue to jump in price, investing in renewables is
critically important so we have enough energy to keep the economy
humming and provide a cleaner environment too."
Mr. Manning said that even without a spike in energy costs, "there is
a conservation imperative coming, though the most immediate concerns
are congestion and time and affordable housing. If we can make
affordable housing in proximity to train stations, there'll be a huge
demand. Energy costs will contribute to this realization down the
line."
Does the Long Island Rail Road provide some insulation against the
havoc that astronomical fuel prices could wreak? Opinions vary here
too.
"We have a huge, efficient commuting system relative to other North
American cities," Mr. Manning said, "so New York and Long Island are
probably better set up to withstand price increases. But the
transportation doesn't always take you where you want to go."
Mr. Guardino elaborated. "The issue is the railroad runs east to
west," he said. "What's happening is that suburban communities are
becoming separate economic entities while their infrastructure was
developed to provide transportation for commuters. So with the roads
more and more crowded with people driving here and there and not going
to the city, the whole system has to be creatively rethought."
Some think government mandates, incentives and subsidies are essential
to move us in the right direction, others that natural response to a
shifting landscape of costs will prod us to change.
"We don't leave the lights on, we put in more insulation," Dr. Cordaro
said. "But energy costs are not so high as to change trends. We still
buy bigger houses and cars, more appliances."
Mr. Guardino agreed. "The sense of urgency is not out there yet," he
said. "It will take a combination of government leadership,
private-sector leadership and a sense of urgency from the general
population to make it clear to government that these things are
priorities.
"I just have a positive outlook about the Island and its ability to
adapt," he added. "When you combine that with the positives - a very
vibrant economy, extraordinary education system, increasing property
values, the emerging biotech industry - I think even if we're faced
with some extraordinary increases in oil prices, we're capable of
adapting."
Mr. Kunstler doesn't agree. "I am certainly pessimistic about the
great megalopolis smudge from north of Boston to south of Washington,"
he said, "and would certainly include Long Island in that assessment.
It has the added geographic problem of being a dead end, a kind of cul
de sac cut off from the rest of America."
He said the public has been "stupendously resistant" to thinking
seriously about the issues raised in the video because it is so
heavily invested in the status quo. "The dirty secret of the American
economy for the last decade or so," Mr. Kunstler said, "is that it is
largely based on the creation of suburban sprawl - the furnishing and
accessorizing it and servicing of it. If you challenge or stop that
activity, you will be in effect questioning the whole American
economy."
Mr. Fazio takes a middle ground.
"The predictions that we're running out of oil never come true," he
remarked, "but still, if we don't change, it's doomsday! As dumb as we
are, when pushed up against the wall with a two by four, we say 'Oh, I
get it.' We're slow but we're trainable."
He has seen "The End of Suburbia" and hopes more people will. "It's
absolutely essential that people know what could happen and that
things don't have to be that way," he said.
More than 10,000 DVD's of "The End of Suburbia" have been sold.
Meanwhile, the filmmakers are working on a sequel called "Escape From
Suburbia" which, Mr. Greene said, "will tell the stories of
interesting initiatives that are being fought for around the world, to
find scalable, affordable energy alternatives in time for the crisis."
Mr. Greene said he is an optimist, but reckoned that we have 10 years,
and said that he's moving soon from Toronto to France because he's
convinced that "the European dream will speak to how things play out
in the 21st century, more than the American, which was a 20th-century
dream." His collaborator, Mr. Silverthorn, is moving to rural Ontario
to learn his ancestors' farming skills.
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Subject: End of Suburbia doc makes NY Times (fwd)
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