Remember, we don't have to run out of oil for the economic climate to change
drastically. All that has to happen is for global oil production to reach its
maximum--a condition know as peak oil--and then go into decline. Peak oil is
very near--Al Gore says we may be there now.
Tom
=============================================================
Published on 27 May 2006 by Washington Post. Archived on 28 May 2006.
News flash: We're running out of oil. Get used to it.
by Warren Brown
There is no cheap gasoline.
Accept that.
Now get on with your Memorial Day weekend and summer travels, and have a good
time.
I'm serious.
End the silliness. Stop worrying about whether gasoline will go up to $4 a
gallon. It will. In some California communities, the price is already there.
Stop running around all over the place wasting time and the gasoline you have
looking for fuel a few cents a gallon cheaper. What's the point? You save 10
cents and lose 10 minutes. You can always find another 10 cents. What about the 10
minutes?
And while you're at it, stop listening to those goofy TV news reports about
"price gouging," or "finding the cheapest gasoline," or about worried consumers
switching to hybrid cars. It's all ratings hype that has little to do with
reality.
Take the hybrid car thing. Gas-electric hybrids constitute barely 1 percent
of the nearly 17 million new cars and trucks sold in the United States. They
are a marginal percentage of the fleets of Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co.
and Ford Motor Co., the three major car companies that make them. Hybrid
battery and related technologies are changing so quickly, the hybrid vehicle you buy
today might not be the one you'll want to keep tomorrow.
There is also the matter of fiscal common sense. I've grown weary of people
who owe more on their current car than it's worth asking me about the
feasibility of trading in their automobile for something more fuel-efficient. Doing
that is neither feasible nor sensible. Here's why:
Presumably, your goal in getting a less fuel-thirsty car is to save money.
But how can you save money by wasting it? Do you think a dealer is going to give
you the new car free? Do you think a bank or financial company is going to
forgive the debt on your current car? Do you believe the bank or other financial
institution will allow you to roll that existing car debt into a new auto
loan at an annual percentage rate that is disadvantageous to the lender? Are you
serious? Get real!
Here is the hard truth:
Oil is running out.
It probably will not disappear before many baby boomers and their immediate
progeny run out of life. But it will disappear.
Every oil company knows that.
Every major automobile manufacturer knows that.
Every politician who got a decent score on a scholastic aptitude test knows
that.
President Bush and Vice President Cheney and all their aides know that.
Oil is running out, and it is running out as global demand for available
energy resources is growing rapidly. That means per barrel prices and pump prices
are going up and will stay up.
All influencing externalities -- global terrorism, political unrest in
oil-producing nations such as Nigeria, refinery disruptions caused by Gulf Coast
storms, the odd and often suspicious behavior of oil futures markets -- are
important. But not one of them changes the essential fact that oil is running out.
So, stop wasting your time worrying about pump prices. If you don't have
enough money to hit the road and buy all of the hamburgers and trinkets you want,
sacrifice some of the hamburgers and trinkets. If you are in a vehicle that
uses lots of gasoline, look at how much you owe on the thing and do the math.
You might be better off keeping it and driving less. Ever consider using the
Metro?
Do you have a recreational vehicle, a motor home? I love those things! My
fellow RVers love them. You know what? High fuel prices, or not, we're still
going to roll this summer. We're just not going to roll as far and as long as we
used to roll, but we're going to roll!
And when we get back, we're going to put pressure on Congress to do something
real for the American people. Enough of this meaningless showmanship of
putting the Federal Trade Commission on the dock in search of "price gouging" that
no one ever really expected to find. That's just a ruse. We want something
real. We want a national energy policy that deals firmly, fairly, sensibly with
the reality that oil is running out.
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Warren Brown, has been covering the automobile industry for the Washington
Post since 1982. -AF
For some reason, it's the car columnists who give us the straight talk about
peak oil. A week ago, it was Dan Neil of the LA Times (End Times). Now it's
Warren Brown, long-time car columnist for the WaPo. -BA
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