Bush Faces Pressure On Global Warming
Europeans to Push For Shift on Kyoto

 

BRUSSELS -- European leaders plan to appeal to President Bush this week for
greater cooperation in dealing with global warming by emphasizing the depth
of dismay across their continent with U.S. policy and the dangers of a
serious estrangement in transatlantic relations.

Officials in several European capitals said British Prime Minister Tony
Blair, French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder will engage in a concerted effort to persuade Bush to relax his
opposition to the Kyoto treaty, which sets mandatory targets in cutting
"greenhouse gas" emissions, when they gather Friday at the Group of Eight
summit of leading industrial countries in Genoa, Italy.

By coincidence, delegates from 180 countries will convene in Bonn on Monday
for a two-week session designed to salvage the Kyoto Protocol, which Bush
renounced in March as "fatally flawed" because, he said, it would damage
U.S. economic interests. The pact calls for industrial countries to curtail
their output of heat-trapping greenhouse gases -- mainly carbon dioxide from
cars and power plants -- below 1990 levels.

European officials said the future of the Kyoto pact is likely to dominate
the G-8 discussions partly because of the presence of Bush and Japanese
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Japan's approval is crucial to putting the
treaty into effect, but Koizumi has said it makes sense to do so only if the
largest producer of greenhouse gases -- the United States -- abides by its
terms.

"There may be a lot of faxes flying between Bonn and Genoa," a senior German
official said. "This is a case where European leaders are fully united in
their belief that Kyoto must be saved. And that means doing everything
possible to bring around the Americans and the Japanese."

As Bush prepares for his second trip to Europe in as many months, the public
protests and hostile media criticism that greeted the man dubbed the "Toxic
Texan" on his maiden diplomatic tour here appear to be gathering new
momentum. Italian authorities say they are bracing for as many as 100,000
demonstrators in Genoa, where army, navy and air force units will seal off
the entire port area in one of Italy's largest peacetime security
operations.

While dark forces of globalization are cited as a principal target, many
protesters in Europe have fastened onto a growing perception of the United
States as an arrogant superpower that holds itself above the rules of
international law. The Bush administration's declared intention to abrogate
the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to develop a missile defense system
and its rejection of the Kyoto treaty are often cited as prime examples of
such unilateralism.

Allied governments have muted their criticism of the missile defense program
lately while encouraging the United States to reach an accommodation with
Russia that would avoid any outright breach of the ABM Treaty. But on global
warming, there is resentment that Bush broke a pledge -- ostensibly given
over dinner in Goteborg, Sweden, last month to the 15 European Union leaders
-- not to sabotage the Kyoto treaty by urging other countries to spurn the
pact.

"We were relying on a promise by the Americans not to obstruct the Kyoto
process," said Margot Wallstrom, the EU's environment chief. "This might be
a matter of definition of what 'obstruction' means, but we can see that the
Americans are clearly putting heavy pressure on their partners . . . to kill
Kyoto."

Wallstrom said it was difficult for Europeans to comprehend the Bush
administration's refusal to lead the campaign against global warming when
the United States produces more than 25 percent of the world's greenhouse
gases while representing only 4 percent of its population. "The American
attitude is especially unfair to poor countries, because the impact on them
could be catastrophic," she said.

Wallstrom said she had traveled to Japan and Australia, which with Canada,
Russia and Norway form part of the U.S.-led umbrella group that is
negotiating the treaty, and found they were reluctant to proceed with the
Kyoto process unless the United States went along. In the absence of U.S.
backing, the treaty can become legally binding only with Japan's endorsement
because it must be ratified by 55 countries responsible for at least 55
percent of greenhouse gases produced by developed nations.

Japan is torn by conflicting views about the global warming confrontation.
While yearning for successful passage of the treaty named after its ancient
capital, where the pact was signed in 1997 after marathon negotiations,
Tokyo desperately wants to avoid a clash with its principal ally, the United
States. Koizumi told parliament that his government would work with the
Europeans in Bonn and Genoa to find a last-ditch way for the United States
to cooperate, but he insisted "we are not at the stage where we should
denounce the United States."

Faced with Japan's reluctance to deal with its problem, European leaders
plan to work hard to secure a more positive response from Bush. Despite a
Cabinet-level review to develop an alternative policy to the Kyoto process,
U.S. delegation leader Paula Dobriansky said she will have nothing new to
offer in Bonn and will reassert Bush's rejection of any mandatory cuts in
greenhouse gases.

British officials said Blair will stress the importance of U.S. leadership
in keeping Kyoto alive and preserving Western solidarity when he and Bush
spend Thursday night at the prime minister's country retreat. And when Bush
arrives in Genoa the next day, EU officials said, Chirac and Schroeder will
use double-team tactics to make a compelling case that the U.S. stance
toward global warming has become a critical factor in sustaining a healthy
Atlantic alliance.

"Any attempt to prevent this internationally crucial agreement from getting
underway in Bonn and making it ratifiable for everyone would be a serious
political mistake," Schroeder said after meeting with U.N. Secretary General
Kofi Annan on Friday. He and Annan insisted the United States and Japan
should realize the world cannot tolerate further delays while awaiting more
studies of global warming as Bush proposed Friday by making $120 million
available for additional research.

"There is enough scientific evidence to wake us up and allow us to take
action," Annan said. "We don't need to wait for perfect science to be able
to act."

The latest scientific research shows the "greenhouse effect" -- in which
carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants help trap the sun's heat in
Earth's atmosphere -- has accelerated greatly in recent years. A study by a
U.N. scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
concluded the 1990s were probably the hottest decade in history and 1998 the
warmest year since record-keeping began in 1861.

The U.N. study predicts that sea levels could rise as much as three feet in
the next 100 years because of melting ice caps and increasing water
temperatures. Many islands and coastal areas could be inundated, and the
severity of hurricanes and monsoons could worsen. Drastic climate change
could also diminish harvests in poor countries, especially in Africa, and
hasten the extinction of animal species.

At a conference in Amsterdam last week, about 1,500 scientists were shown
evidence that the Arctic ice cap has already shrunk much faster than
expected and caused a massive flow of fresh water into the North Atlantic
that could be disrupting the Gulf Stream, which helps temper Europe's
climate. Some scientists forecast that if left unchecked, the process could
shut down the Gulf Stream within this century and make a stretch of land
from London to Stockholm almost uninhabitable.

"The problem of global change is real, and it is more serious than is
currently perceived politically," said Berrien Moore III, a leading member
of the U.N. panel on climate change. "If the climate talks break down, the
problem will not go away. And the longer we put off doing something, the
more it will cost in the long run."

Staff writer Eric Pianin in Washington contributed to this report.


© 2001 The Washington Post Company



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