FYI. Here is the latest Iowa Poll news on the Presidential candidates in
Iowa. Dean is really coming on strong here. In the second and third article
Dean is now being openly talked about, with Lieberman, as the front runner
here.
Lyle
Dean, Gephardt Lead in Iowa Poll
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt led in an Iowa Poll
that looked at the competition for the state's national leadoff precinct
caucuses in January.
John Kerry, who has been competing for the lead in recent Iowa polls, was 9
points behind Dean in the poll taken late last month.
The copyright poll published Sunday in The Des Moines Register showed Dean,
the former Vermont governor, with the support of 23 percent, and Gephardt, a
Missouri congressman, with the support of 21 percent.
Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, had the backing of 14 percent, while
Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the only other candidate in the double
digits in the nine-member field, was the first choice of 10 percent.
A strong performance in Iowa could be crucial for Dean, who is in a tough
battle with Kerry in New Hampshire, site of the nation's first presidential
primary, a week after Iowa's caucuses.
LATEST NEWS
Dean, Gephardt Lead in Iowa Poll
Lieberman Leads in South Carolina Poll
The poll questioned 402 registered voters eligible to vote in the caucuses
from July 22-29 and had an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage
points.
Polling for the Iowa caucuses is very difficult because it's hard to know
who will actually
*********
Politics
Dean leads Democrats, but many undecided
By JONATHAN ROOS
Register Staff Writer
08/03/2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean narrowly leads U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt as
the Democratic presidential frontrunner in a new Des Moines Register poll of
Iowans likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses.
The Iowa Poll shows Dean, who has emerged nationally as a major contender
for the Democratic nomination, is the first choice of 23 percent of those
who say they definitely or probably will attend the January precinct
caucuses, which kick off the nominating season for the nation.
"I like his stand on the war in Iraq," said poll respondent Wendy Parker,
39, an assistant principal from Newton. "He's thoughtful and willing to take
risks, willing to speak out for what he thinks is right."
Gephardt, a Missouri congressman who won the Iowa caucuses in 1988 but went
on to lose the Democratic nomination to Michael Dukakis, is favored by 21
percent in the poll. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was third with 14
percent.
Although the race for the Democratic nomination is a long way from the
finish line, Dean's vote-getting power in Iowa and his strong poll numbers
in other key states show he has created momentum during the summer. He has
helped himself in Iowa by spending more time campaigning in the state than
any other candidate so far.
Candidates generally aim to finish third or better in Iowa to strengthen
their bids in New Hampshire and other states with early primaries. The bar
is set high for Gephardt because of his 1988 victory and familiarity to
Iowans.
Gephardt is Parker's second choice.
"He's got experience and has certainly gone down this road before," she
said. "I don't think that he's a risk-taker. He's probably more willing to
say what people want to hear."
The only other candidate in double digits in the nine-member field is Joe
Lieberman. The Connecticut senator and running mate of Al Gore in 2000
garners the support of 10 percent of likely caucus participants.
Those further back in the pack are U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina
at 5 percent and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 4 percent. The poll
shows Edwards has failed to get much traction in Iowa so far despite making
a concerted campaign effort. He built up good will with the Iowa Democratic
Party last year by visiting four times and by contributing significant
resources to the party's 2002 election efforts.
Bringing up the rear at 1 percent each are U.S. Sen Bob Graham of Florida,
former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and the Rev. Al Sharpton of
New York.
The Iowa Poll, taken July 22-29, has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage
points.
Recent polls in New Hampshire showed Dean and Kerry running neck and neck. A
Field Poll of Californians taken last month showed Dean with a slight lead
over Kerry and Lieberman.
Dean's rivals can take heart from the fact that no candidate in Iowa has a
decisive lead, which is reflected in national polls as well, and there is
still plenty of time for people to change their minds.
Many Democrats are still undecided. The Iowa Poll shows one-fifth of likely
caucus participants are either uncommitted or unsure about which candidate
to support.
Even so, other poll findings suggest that Dean's lead over Gephardt and the
other Democratic contenders has a firm foundation:
* Dean's support is fairly broad-based. Among likely caucus participants he
is the first choice of 36 percent of those with incomes topping $70,000, 28
percent of those with college degrees, 28 percent of those between the ages
of 45 and 64, 28 percent of those from small cities, and 28 percent of men.
* In competing with Gephardt and others for the support of the labor vote, a
key Democratic constituency, Dean is the first choice of 29 percent of
likely caucus participants from households with a union member. Gephardt,
who received pivotal support from labor groups in 1988, is supported by 24
percent from union households. Kerry's share is 11 percent.
* Dean is generally well regarded. Among those who are familiar enough with
him to have an opinion, 38 percent rate their feelings toward him as very
favorable. That compares with 33 percent who view Kerry very favorably, 29
percent for Gephardt and 14 percent for Lieberman.
* Among Iowans polled who say they definitely will attend the Democratic
caucuses, which is a firmer commitment than those saying they probably will
attend, Dean's lead grows to 10 points over Gephardt.
"This isn't as much of a niche candidacy as some people have wanted to
portray it," said J. Ann Selzer, the Register's pollster.
While Dean has mounted a serious challenge to Gephardt in Iowa, Gephardt
clearly remains in the thick of the fight. He showed during his Iowa
campaign in 1988 that he could bounce back from sagging poll numbers and
rally his troops to victory.
Gephardt, a former House Democratic leader, is the best-known candidate in
the field. Nearly three-fourths of all likely caucus participants have very
or mostly favorable feelings toward him.
Gephardt's pockets of strength include the 28 percent of senior citizens -
those 65 or older - who make him their first choice for the presidency. He
also is the top choice of 31 percent of those with a high school education
or less, 30 percent of Protestants, 27 percent of rural residents and 23
percent of women.
His supporters include poll respondent Bill Weydert, 49, of Peosta, who
works at a plant that makes electric motors.
"I think he's a little more middle of the road," Weydert said. "He has lots
of experience in Congress. . . . He understands the Midwest and farming. I'm
also a farmer."
Kerry, the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is the first choice of 21
percent of Catholics among likely caucus participants, 19 percent of those
with college degrees, and 19 percent of those with incomes between $30,000
and $50,000.
Mario Iniguez, a 21-year-old Grandview resident who will be a senior at Iowa
State University this fall, said he's attracted to Kerry because Kerry is a
charismatic figure who has his priorities straight.
"He seems to have a very good way with people. He's very social," said
Iniguez. "He doesn't seem to be so gung-ho on the war. He seems to be
compassionate about the economy. He understands that terrorism is a real
threat but there are also problems here at home."
Kerry can take some comfort from the poll's finding that he is likely caucus
participants' most popular second choice to become president, favored by 18
percent. Dean and Gephardt each are the second choice of 14 percent.
Lieberman is the second choice of 10 percent.
Kerry's second-choice endorsements are tempered by the fact, however, that
many of them come from Iowans backing other top-tier Democratic candidates,
rather than from supporters of weaker candidates who could drop out of the
race.
The Democratic contender who stands out as the least-liked candidate in the
poll is Sharpton. Thirty-seven percent of likely caucus participants give
him that dubious distinction. Next on the least-liked list is Lieberman at 9
percent.
Likely caucus participants are generally upbeat about Democrats' chances of
winning back the White House. Fifty percent say any Democratic candidate,
regardless of who it is, has at least a 50-50 chance to defeat President
Bush. Another 34 percent are even more confident, saying the Democratic
nominee has a very good chance of knocking off the Republican incumbent.
The war in Iraq and its aftermath have emerged as a volatile campaign issue
that has energized many Democratic activists. It also has created
uncertainty.
The Iowa Poll shows 39 percent of likely caucus participants believe the
only Democratic candidate who can defeat Bush is one who opposed the war
from the beginning. But another 29 percent say it will take a candidate who
supported the war to win the presidency next year. The remaining 32 percent
are unsure.
The poll also shows 61 percent of likely caucus participants were mostly or
strongly opposed to the war from the beginning, and anti-war sentiment among
this group has grown even more in recent weeks.
Even among the 38 percent who initially favored the war to at least some
degree, more than half now say they look with less favor on the conflict.
*********
Politics
Polls give ammunition to Dean, Lieberman
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
Register Staff Writer
08/05/2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The two 2004 Democratic presidential candidates who have emerged as
standard-bearers for the party's divergent views have sharpened their
criticism of rivals as the race reaches critical tests of strength.
U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and former Vermont Gov. Howard
Dean used their recent top finishes in separate public opinion polls to
argue Monday that their backgrounds and stands on issues have provided
momentum to show they are best suited to challenge President Bush.
Lieberman, who was the favored candidate in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal
poll on Sunday, criticized the left wing of his party for what he termed
"grasping at failed solutions that will not meet our 21st-century needs."
Meanwhile, Dean said Monday, "to beat George Bush, I think you have to be
very aggressive and bring new people into the electoral process, and we're
able to do that and so far the other folks haven't been able to."
Dean, the field's top fund-raiser in the second quarter, earned early
support from Democrats who opposed the Iraq war. He has since won a
following via the Internet, among people he describes as previously
disaffected voters.
In the first Iowa Poll on the Democratic race in the state, published in the
Des Moines Sunday Register, Dean narrowly beat out U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt
of Missouri to become the front-runner, less than six months before the
precinct caucuses.
Dean opposed the war in Iraq and has proposed repealing all of the income
tax cuts enacted since Bush took office in 2001. He has attacked Lieberman
and U.S. Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North
Carolina for supporting the war and backing some of the Bush tax cuts. He
also has criticized Gephardt for voting in favor of the Iraq war.
"The question is: Who can beat George Bush? I don't think we're going to do
it by voting for some of George Bush's programs," Dean said Monday.
Lieberman, the 2000 vice presidential nominee, was an early supporter of the
war and favors keeping in place the tax cuts for all income brackets except
the top two.
In remarks prepared for delivery Monday at the National Press Club in
Washington, Lieberman said that the answer to Bush's "outdated, extremist
ideology is not to be found in the outdated extremes of our own."
Lieberman finished fourth in the Iowa Poll. Dean was third in the NBC poll.
Dean and Lieberman are scheduled to campaign in Iowa Wednesday.
Kerry said Monday while campaigning in Des Moines that he had no plans to
increase his criticism of his rivals, but he promised to point out
differences.
"In my campaigns, I draw distinctions on issues, very strong distinctions,
and I'm going to continue to do that," Kerry said after a campaign stop
where he criticized Bush for proposed changes in the nation's overtime pay
standards.
Dean and Kerry clashed early in the primary campaign after Dean accused
Kerry of being ambivalent about the war in Iraq. The two have become testy
rivals at times and are locked in a tight race in New Hampshire. The New
Hampshire primary is the second nominating contest, following the Jan. 19
Iowa caucuses by eight days.
Tax cuts, which became a major issue last spring, resurfaced last week as
Kerry took aim at Dean's support for repealing all the Bush tax cuts. Kerry
described the proposal, also supported by Gephardt, as unbecoming of "a real
Democrat."
"This is nothing new. We did it a week ago," Kerry said Monday. "When
there's a distinction on an issue, we're going to draw a distinction. It's
as clear as that."
Kerry downplayed his finish behind Dean and Gephardt in the Iowa Poll.
"A poll's a poll. They don't mean anything. It's early," he said.
*********
Lyle R. Krewson
Sierra Club Conservation Organizer
6403 Aurora Avenue #3
Des Moines, IA 50322-2862
515/276-8947
515/238-7113 - cel
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