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From: Patrick & Ann Bosold <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To: IOWA-LEOPOLD-FORUM <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2002 21:11:30 -0600
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Fw: Paul Hawken & beyond the 2% solution

> Beyond the 2% Solution
>
> By Paul Hawken, co-author of "Natural Capitalism:  The Next
> Industrial Revolution"
>
>
> There is a Sufi story about the Mulla Nasrudin who is crawling on all
fours
>
> late at night under a streetlight outside his house. A friend wanders by
and
>
> asks him what he is doing and Nasrudin tells him he is looking for his
lost
>
> house keys. After joining the fruitless search for some time, his friend
>
> turns to him and asks him exactly where he lost them. Nasrudin points to
the
>
> backyard of the house. His friend is incredulous and wants to know why
they
>
> have been searching in the front yard near the street. Nasrudin says:
>
> "Because this is where the light is."
>
>
> The purpose of Nasrudin tales is to reveal how the mind creates illusions,
>
> which then pass for reasonable behavior. In the U.S. there is the illusion
>
> du jour: We are running short of energy and need more. Not only has
>
> California hit the wall, but there are ominous warnings from New York City
>
> right across the country that we may have entered a new period of energy
>
> deficits with all the suffering that will entail: inflation, economic
>
> stagnation, and joblessness. Perish the thought; let's drill for oil.
>
>
> The proposals to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, though it
is
>
> one of the world's most climatically hostile locations, seem "reasonable"
in
>
> this light. If it is scarcity that determines something's value, then what
>
> is scarce is not oil or even energy, but the wisdom to use it wisely. If
>
> that wisdom could be found in an oil well or vein of coal, America would
be
>
> the wisest country in the world. Instead, we are the most profligate with
>
> respect to energy use. How wasteful are we?
>
>
> Imagine a water tank that supplies a growing town in an arid region. The
>
> water is filled by a well that draws from an aquifer, but the tank is old
>
> and leaky as are the pipes that carry the water into the hamlet. For every
>
> hundred gallons of water that goes into the tank, only two gallons gets to
>
> the village's inhabitants. The rest is lost at the tank or on the way.
With
>
> new houses being built and more families arriving, the town is running out
>
> of water, and people are complaining. The mayor proudly announces that he
is
>
> going to dig a new well a thousand miles away and pump it across the
desert
>
> to their water tank and calls on his city council to appropriate these
>
> needed funds so that the town does not suffer economically. Everyone
>
> applauds. He is a hero.
>
>
> This is the way we deal with energy in the U.S.
>
>
> Measurements of energy-calories, BTUs, kilowatt-hours-are ways to
> indicate the amount of work a given amount of oil, gas, or electricity can
>
> accomplish. In the US, for every 100 units of energy that we introduce
into
>
> our economic system nearly 98 units are wasted. That's right, we are 2%
>
> efficient. Building a pipeline in the fragile environment of the Arctic
>
> circle to deliver oil that will not arrive for another ten years from now
>
> and that would supply 180 days of total U.S. consumption will only do one
>
> thing: satisfy the Senators of Alaska and the CEOs of oil companies. It
will
>
> do nothing for U.S. energy security.
>
>
> If you doubt the 2% figure, consider two common energy devices, your car
> and a light bulb. After a century of engineering, the modern car is still
in
> the
>
> Iron Age. Of the energy consumed, about 80 percent is lost, mainly in heat
>
> and exhaust. Of the 20 % that gets to the wheels, only 5% moves the
driver.
>
> Five-percent times 20% equals 1%, a level of inefficiency that means cars
>
> burn their weight every year in gasoline.
>
>
> In the case of incandescent light bulbs,100% of the energy input to the
lamp
>
> becomes heat; only 8% becomes light en route to heat, then the emitted
light
>
> is absorbed and heats the room too. It essentially a space heater that
>
> glows. When you consider that power plants providing the electricity are,
on
>
> average, 33% efficient and line losses from transmission trim another 7%,
we
>
> are talking about 8% of 30.7%, or 2.5% resource efficiency for our
favorite
>
> form of illumination.
>
>
> If you drive 45 minutes to work, are stuck in a traffic jam, or sit with
>
> your engine idling, efficiency plunges to zero. Likewise, a light bulb
left
>
> on in a room with no one in it is 100% inefficient. The solution to such
>
> gross inefficiency is not more energy and energy conservation doesn't mean
>
> lowering the thermostat and shivering. It means increasing energy
>
> productivity.
>
>
> What President Bush has completely overlooked are the proven alternatives
>
> that greatly increase the productivity with which energy is used. There
are
>
> now a plethora of innovative productivity techniques that can reduce
energy
>
> consumption fifty-fold greater than the purported supply of oil in ANWR,
and
>
> they are cheaper, more effective, and create more jobs.
>
>
> If the USGS estimates are correct, ANWR will provide about 292,000 barrels
>
> of oil or about 156,000 barrels of gasoline a day for thirty years
starting
>
> in 2011. That would run about 2% of the cars in the U.S for three decades.
>
> Improving fleet mileage 0.4 mpg in our light vehicles would accomplish the
>
> same objective with the important exception that it would cost consumers
>
> less.
>
>
> These savings are just the tip of the iceberg. U.S. fleet mileage is
>
> currently 24 mpg, a 20-year low. Hybrid electric cars now appearing in
show
>
> rooms will triple that figure. Current models such as the Toyota Prius get
>
> 48-mpg city/highway combined. There are now over 350,000 on the road here
>
> and abroad. VW is already selling a car that gets 78-mpg and is said to
have
>
> a 200-mpg car available in 2003. The Big Three are testing family sedans
>
> that will head for production in the next three years that exceed 70 mpg.
>
> Another way to think about this is that we can create the equivalent of
>
> about 30 Arctic Refuge oilfields in Detroit with good engineering. It
takes
>
> bad politics to exploit only one.
>
>
> Before we get a drop of ANWR oil, we will be driving electric cars powered
>
> by fuel cells. These cars, which emit drinkable hot water vapor from the
>
> tail pipe, have an extraordinary secondary use: they are mobile power
plants
>
> with the capacity to provide 5- 10 times the total power output of all our
>
> nuclear and coal plants. Parked cars can feed electricity into the grid,
>
> thereby forever eliminating the need for dirty, large, centralized power
>
> plants.
>
>
> In buildings, manufacturing, processing, and construction, similar savings
>
> abound. The mindset that made cars with one percent energy efficiency
>
> created our buildings and cities too. With relatively low-tech methods
>
> including new glazing, proper siting, efficient lighting, and passive
>
> heating and ventilation, we can create state-of-the-shelf, quiet,
thermally
>
> comfortable buildings that are a visual delight. These buildings save
30-50%
>
> over conventionally built structures that are too hot, too cold, too
drafty,
>
> too noisy, and not so great to work in. Integrating green buildings with
new
>
> urbanist planning and layouts can further reduce traffic, noise, energy,
and
>
> waste by equal amounts.
>
>
> In industry, huge cost and energy savings can be attained as we shift away
>
> from the petrochemically dependent reactive chemistry that has produced a
>
> witch's brew of compounds that permeate our environment with toxins. New
>
> enzymatic techniques not only promise safer compounds, but low-temperature
>
> manufacturing the can reduce energy cost by 90%. The possibilities for
>
> energy efficiency in all aspects of industry are almost overwhelming in
>
> their diversity and possibility. The good news is that these savings are
>
> made of tools, products and services that can be created everywhere in
> the US. They do not depend on oilfields, large capital outlays, or putting
>
> critical environments at risk.
>
>
> President Bush's energy policy will reward what a few Senators and oil
>
> executives want but not what the American people want. People are not
>
> clamoring for the destruction of a sensitive Arctic habitat, more
greenhouse
>
> gases, climatic instability, or the wanton disregard of the traditional
home
>
> of the Gwich'in people.
>
> What Americans want is security, jobs, stable
>
> prices, and an intelligent energy policy. Ignoring the leaky water tank on
>
> the hill cannot attain this. No system is 100% efficient. That is
impossible
>
> according to physical laws. But America could have a goal of 10%
efficiency,
>
> an objective that would allow robust economic growth while reducing
overall
>
> energy use by two-thirds in the next twenty years, a goal that would lead
us
>
> away from the oil age, an age whose end is inevitable.
>
> The oil age, including combustion processes, which threaten the very
> stability
> of life on earth, is ending, not because we are running out of oil, but
> because
> we have a better idea. The Stone Age never ran out of stones either. We
are
> on the threshold of a profoundly different economy with respect to energy
> use.
>
> The continued governmental subsidy of coal and oil, whether in Alaska or
>
> Virginia or Kentucky or any other state whose Senators have seniority, is
a
>
> sure-fire way to hobble America's competitiveness.
>
>
> We can continue to be the most profligate nation in the world with respect
>
> to energy, or we can begin to become the most brilliant and innovative. We
>
> lead in so many areas of technology. We can do it with energy too. Mark
>
> Twain said that you can't see if your imagination is out of focus. To
focus
>
> the imagination of a nation, a country that is economically strong and
>
> environmentally conservative requires just one quality: leadership out of
>
> the oil age, not halting backward steps into it.
>
> _______________________________
>
>
> Global Renaissance Alliance
> P.O. Box 3259
> Center Line, MI 48015
> (586)754-8105
> (586)754-8106 fax
> www.renaissancealliance.org
> [log in to unmask]
>
> _______________________________
>
>
> "Forgiveness is the answer to the child's dream of a miracle by which what
>
> is broken is made whole again, what is soiled is made clean again."
>
> -Dag Hammarskjöld
>

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