Carl Sagan's
Baloney Detection Kit

Based on the book "The Demon Haunted World: Science as a candle in the dark" 
published by Headline 1996.

The following are suggested as tools for testing arguments and detecting 
fallacious or fraudulent arguments:


    * Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts
    * Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable 
proponents of all points of view.
    * Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no 
"authorities").
    * Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea 
that caught your fancy.
    * Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's 
yours.
    * Quantify, wherever possible.
    * If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work.
    * "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data 
equally well choose the simpler.
    * Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified 
(shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is 
testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?


Additional issues are

    * Conduct control experiments - especially "double blind" experiments 
where the person taking measurements is not aware of the test and control 
subjects.
    * Check for confounding factors - separate the variables.


Common fallacies of logic and rhetoric

    * Ad hominem - attacking the arguer and not the argument.
    * Argument from "authority".
    * Argument from adverse consequences (putting pressure on the decision 
maker by pointing out dire consequences of an "unfavourable" decision).
    * Appeal to ignorance (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence).
    * Special pleading (typically referring to god's will).
    * Begging the question (assuming an answer in the way the question is 
phrased).
    * Observational selection (counting the hits and forgetting the misses).
    * Statistics of small numbers (such as drawing conclusions from 
inadequate sample sizes).
    * Misunderstanding the nature of statistics (President Eisenhower 
expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all 
Americans have below average intelligence!)
    * Inconsistency (e.g. military expenditures based on worst case 
scenarios but scientific projections on environmental dangers thriftily 
ignored because they are not "proved").
    * Non sequitur - "it does not follow" - the logic falls down.
    * Post hoc, ergo propter hoc - "it happened after so it was caused by" - 
confusion of cause and effect.
    * Meaningless question ("what happens when an irresistible force meets 
an immovable object?).
    * Excluded middle - considering only the two extremes in a range of 
possibilities (making the "other side" look worse than it really is).
    * Short-term v. long-term - a subset of excluded middle ("why pursue 
fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?").
    * Slippery slope - a subset of excluded middle - unwarranted 
extrapolation of the effects (give an inch and they will take a mile).
    * Confusion of correlation and causation.
    * Straw man - caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position to make it 
easier to attack..
    * Suppressed evidence or half-truths.
    * Weasel words - for example, use of euphemisms for war such as "police 
action" to get around limitations on Presidential powers. "An important art 
of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names 
have become odious to the public"

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