Oil And Gas Journal Expects Acute Crisis After 2005
"..... a sequence of supply crises [is] likely to develop not when oil production peaks - the subject of much recent controversy - but earlier, when widening gaps appear between demand and sources of supply upon which the world has come to rely....  it is a mistake to assume that reserves of conventional oil can grow indefinitely and that abundant resources of unconventional oil resources, such as tar sands, can fully compensate for production declines. There is a fundamental difference between producing oil from a naturally flowing well and mining tar sands in Venezuela or Canada.... the feedback of tightening supplies through rising oil price will reduce demand growth and stimulate conservation and the development of alternative supply options. However, the crises will be real enough as markets rarely anticipate surprises, and many years will pass before material changes in behaviour and alternative energy sources significantly impact demand for oil..... The failure of non-OPEC to meet a large part of incremental demand, as it has done for more than 20 years, is likely to precipitate the first crisis in oil supply. Depending on demand and FSU [Former Soviet Union] supply, this crisis is practically upon us and is expected to be acute after 2005.... "
Oil supply challenges - 1: The non-OPEC decline
Oil and Gas Journal, 21 February 2005