This story first appeared in the E&E Daily on November 13, 2005.

1. ANWR

Republican troubles undermine House drilling proposal
Ben Geman, Greenwire reporter
 
House leaders will try again this week to pass budget legislation that does not include Arctic National Wildlife Refuge oil drilling -- a bill that must advance to keep alive prospects of opening the Arctic refuge through a House-Senate budget reconciliation conference report.

As drilling supporters look to conference negotiations with the Senate to salvage the measure, analysts say the Republican Party's woes and GOP moderates' focus on the 2006 elections are key factors behind House leaders' decision last week to jettison ANWR from their budget package. The same factors could complicate efforts to bring it back.

The revolt of Republican moderates forced House leaders to ditch ANWR -- and even then, they could not find enough support for the $51 billion spending cut package and abandoned a floor vote last week. Leadership staff are hoping to tweak the spending cut measure enough to secure passage and hope to return it to the floor.

But moderates are publicly vowing to continue making ANWR a defining issue. And experts say low GOP approval ratings and the House leadership's weakened position in the wake of former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's (R-Texas) indictment have changed the dynamic of the House.

"There is no doubt that the broader political environment, in particular the decline of the president and Republican Party fortunes, have emboldened some moderates on Capitol Hill to act on some of their beliefs," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Both sides are dug in
Over two dozen moderates pressed House leaders to jettison ANWR and a provision allowing new offshore drilling. With Democrats united against GOP spending cuts, it would only take 14 of these members refusing to vote for any package that includes ANWR to prevent its passage through the House. The struggle marks a surprising reversal of fortune for drilling backers after years in which the Senate was the main battle ground.

The revolt has not been quiet. Last week, Republicans working through the Republican Main Street Partnership called a press conference to highlight their refusal to go along with ANWR drilling and pledged to hold firm. "We plan to project that position forward to the final conference committee report," said Rep. Charles Bass (R-N.H.), a leader of anti-drilling moderates, at a press conference Thursday.

"One of the questions obviously is the fact that the conferees will probably all support drilling in the ANWR, what reason is there not to pop it right back in and send it right back to the House," he said. But if ANWR does reappear, he warned, "there will be no reconciliation ... and they need to understand that. I and other like-minded members will not vote for the final package when it comes back if it has drilling in the Arctic."

The moderates' tough stance creates problems for the leadership, because a substantial number of other Republican lawmakers are strongly in favor of ANWR development. There were indications last week that some members would consider voting against reconciliation without ANWR included. However, voting down the House package would effectively end any hopes of ANWR moving this year.

On Thursday afternoon, Brian Kennedy, an aide to House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo (R-Calif.), said the House member is "adamant that it be in a final conference report, and he has quite a bit of company."
Midterm anxieties
Analysts say GOP moderates are weighing their positions on reconciliation with an eye on the midterm races. "In this current political climate, it is going to be very tough to ask moderates to take tough votes that they are going to have to answer for in the 2006 elections," said Amy Walter, senior editor at the Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan newsletter.

The revolt on ANWR has been led largely by Northeastern Republicans. "They get what 2006 could mean for them," Walter said. "In a difficult political climate, theirs are the kind of districts that are the most vulnerable. They are the incumbents who more than any others need to find ways to show their independence in the midterm election, and ANWR is one way to do that."

And environmentalists have pledged to make it a defining issue. The League of Conservation Voters has promised to hold members who support a budget package with ANWR "accountable" in upcoming elections.

Drilling opponents are not assuming the battle is over, given the possible reappearance of ANWR drilling in conference if the process gets that far. "I think we would never want to underestimate the lengths to which this Republican leadership will go to try to get the votes for a measure, regardless of how unpopular or discredited," said David Moulton, chief of staff for Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.), a leading opponent of ANWR development.

Senate leaders who included ANWR in their $35 billion reconciliation package are expected to push hard for its inclusion -- they gained a slim pro-drilling majority in the 2004 elections. But they lack the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, so including ANWR in budget bills immune from the tactic is seen as the only path to energy development there.

"You never want to underestimate [Sen.] Ted Stevens [R-Alaska]. He is never going to give up and say, 'That's how the ball bounces,'" said Jim DiPeso, policy director for Republicans for Environmental Protection, which opposes ANWR drilling.

But he and others are cautiously optimistic that House leaders may be unable to craft a measure that appeals to both their party's moderates -- who oppose both ANWR and some cuts to social programs now in the measure -- and conservatives who insist upon more aggressive mandatory spending cuts and energy production measures.

"It is like a chemistry experiment," DiPeso said. "You have to have just the right amount of ingredients or the whole thing will explode, and right now it is looking like it is getting ready to explode."