The Seattle Times, not normally know for exposing big business, published these  Guest Columnists article.  Phyllis

 

 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2008170009_newdrillingop10.html

Guest columnists

We can't drill our way out of oil dependency

THERE has been much debate between President Bush and Congress and between the presidential candidates about removing the ban on offshore...

By James W. Murray and Jim Hansen

Special to The Times

 Strategic Energy Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology :

THERE has been much debate between President Bush and Congress and between the presidential candidates about removing the ban on offshore drilling. This distracts us from what really needs to be done to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. We need an emergency strategy for reducing oil consumption now.

If the United States wants to reduce its oil dependency, it could do so by immediately reducing the speed limit to 55 mph and increasing the mileage rating of cars by 10 mpg. These two steps together would almost eliminate our need for oil from Saudi Arabia.

And for the future, we need to set ourselves on a new energy path toward the post-oil energy economics of the future. These policies should include increased efficiency of vehicles, which should include mass production of electric vehicles, tax breaks for increased efficiencies in households and businesses, a renaissance of nuclear power, expansion of renewable energy sources and development of solar electrical production.

It is wishful thinking that offshore drilling will make oil more plentiful and bring down the price. Bush recently stated offshore drilling could yield up to 18 billion barrels of oil. This estimate is unverifiable, as seismic surveys with modern technology have not been run in most of the outer continental shelf to see if there are any oil-trapping structures, and test wells have not been drilled to see if the structures that might exist have any oil.

Such drilling will not happen soon, as all the world's deep-water oil rigs are already reserved for the next five years. Oil companies already have leases for many desirable sites but they are not developing them. Ironically, they have needed the current high price of oil to make them economic.

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is related but different. It is not on the outer continental shelf but is in a region difficult to develop because of its climate. It has also not yet been explored for geological structures using modern technology or tested with wells to see if any structures have oil.

Based on comparisons with other regions, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that there is a 95 percent probability that there are 5.7 billion barrels of technically recoverable but undiscovered oil in the ANWR. First production is estimated to be nine to 12 years from permit approval. Peak production was estimated to be 0.6 to 1.9 million barrels of oil per day after 20 to 30 years.

Finally, unless the United States nationalizes its oil companies, any new oil produced would go on the global market and would not necessarily stay in the U.S. The price of oil, which is set on the international trading market, would be barely affected. According to an Energy Information Administration report on ANWAR requested by Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska and released in May, the impact on future oil prices would be minimal.

The history of U.S. oil production is shown in the accompanying chart. The contribution from ANWR will neither remove our dependence on foreign oil nor enable the U.S. to continue its current level of consumption, which is about 21 million barrels of oil per day.

The U.S. needs to move on beyond the debate of whether to drill or not and focus its effort on mitigation and solutions to the real oil crisis we face: constrained liquid fuel.

James W. Murray, left, is a professor in the University of Washington's School of Oceanography and founding director of the UW Program on Climate Change. Jim Hansen, an investment adviser, is a member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.

Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company

 

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