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Subject: Here Comes the Sun
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The New York Times
OP-ED COLUMNIST
November 6, 2011
Here Comes the SunBy PAUL
KRUGMAN<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/column=
ists/paulkrugman/index.html?inline=3Dnyt-per>


For decades the story of technology has been dominated, in the popular mind
and to a large extent in reality, by computing and the things you can do
with it. Moore=92s Law =97 in which the price of computing power falls roug=
hly
50 percent every 18 months =97 has powered an ever-expanding range of
applications, from faxes to Facebook.

Our mastery of the material world, on the other hand, has advanced much
more slowly. The sources of energy, the way we move stuff around, are much
the same as they were a generation ago.

But that may be about to change. We are, or at least we should be, on the
cusp of an energy transformation, driven by the rapidly falling cost of
solar power. That=92s right, solar power.

If that surprises you, if you still think of solar power as some kind of
hippie fantasy, blame our fossilized political system, in which fossil fuel
producers have both powerful political allies and a powerful propaganda
machine that denigrates alternatives.

Speaking of propaganda: Before I get to solar, let=92s talk briefly about
hydraulic fracturing, a k a fracking.

Fracking =97 injecting high-pressure fluid into rocks deep underground,
inducing the release of fossil fuels =97 is an impressive technology. But
it=92s also a technology that imposes large costs on the public. We know th=
at
it produces toxic (and radioactive) wastewater that contaminates drinking
water; there is reason to suspect, despite industry denials, that it also
contaminates groundwater; and the heavy trucking required for fracking
inflicts major damage on roads.

Economics 101 tells us that an industry imposing large costs on third
parties should be required to =93internalize=94 those costs =97 that is, to=
 pay
for the damage it inflicts, treating that damage as a cost of production.
Fracking might still be worth doing given those costs. But no industry
should be held harmless from its impacts on the environment and the
nation=92s infrastructure.

Yet what the industry and its defenders demand is, of course, precisely
that it be let off the hook for the damage it causes. Why? Because we need
that energy! For example, the industry-backed organization
energyfromshale.org declares that =93there are only two sides in the debate=
:
those who want our oil and natural resources developed in a safe and
responsible way; and those who don=92t want our oil and natural gas resourc=
es
developed at all.=94

So it=92s worth pointing out that special treatment for fracking makes a
mockery of free-market principles. Pro-fracking politicians claim to be
against subsidies, yet letting an industry impose costs without paying
compensation is in effect a huge subsidy. They say they oppose having the
government =93pick winners,=94 yet they demand special treatment for this
industry precisely because they claim it will be a winner.

And now for something completely different: the success story you haven=92t
heard about.

These days, mention solar power and you=92ll probably hear cries of
=93Solyndra!=94 Republicans have tried to make the failed solar panel compa=
ny
both a symbol of government waste =97 although claims of a major scandal ar=
e
nonsense =97 and a stick with which to beat renewable energy.

But Solyndra=92s failure was actually caused by technological success: the
price of solar panels is dropping fast, and Solyndra couldn=92t keep up wit=
h
the competition. In fact, progress in solar panels has been so dramatic and
sustained that, as a blog post at Scientific American put
it<http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheape=
r-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/>,
=93there=92s now frequent talk of a =91Moore=92s law=92 in solar energy,=94=
 with prices
adjusted for inflation falling around 7 percent a year.

This has already led to rapid growth in solar installations, but even more
change may be just around the corner. If the downward trend continues =97 a=
nd
if anything it seems to be accelerating =97 we=92re just a few years from t=
he
point at which electricity from solar panels becomes cheaper than
electricity generated by burning coal.

And if we priced coal-fired power right, taking into account the huge
health and other costs it imposes, it=92s likely that we would already have
passed that tipping point.

But will our political system delay the energy transformation now within
reach?

Let=92s face it: a large part of our political class, including essentially
the entire G.O.P., is deeply invested in an energy sector dominated by
fossil fuels, and actively hostile to alternatives. This political class
will do everything it can to ensure subsidies for the extraction and use of
fossil fuels, directly with taxpayers=92 money and indirectly by letting th=
e
industry off the hook for environmental costs, while ridiculing
technologies like solar.

So what you need to know is that nothing you hear from these people is
true. Fracking is not a dream come true; solar is now cost-effective. Here
comes the sun, if we=92re willing to let it in.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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--f46d04374511dc8b2604b12027ce
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<span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-fami=
ly: arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: x-s=
mall; ">The New York Times</span><div><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" styl=
e=3D"color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, sans-serif; background-col=
or: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: x-small; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-sp=
an" style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif=
; font-size: 10px; line-height: 14px; text-transform: uppercase; ">OP-ED CO=
LUMNIST</span></span></div>
<div><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font=
-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 2=
55); "><div class=3D"timestamp" style=3D"margin-top: 15px; font-size: 10px;=
 font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: nowrap; color: rgb=
(168, 24, 23); ">
November 6, 2011</div><div class=3D"kicker" style=3D"color: black; text-tra=
nsform: uppercase; margin-top: 15px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-se=
rif; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.4em; "></div><h1 style=3D"font-size: 2.=
4em; font-weight: bold; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: =
0px; margin-left: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 1.083em; ">
Here Comes the Sun</h1><h6 class=3D"byline" style=3D"margin-top: 2px; margi=
n-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 2px; margin-left: 0px; color: rgb(128, 128, 12=
8); font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.2em; font-weight: bold; font-family: ari=
al, helvetica, sans-serif; ">
By=A0<a rel=3D"author" href=3D"http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editor=
ialsandoped/oped/columnists/paulkrugman/index.html?inline=3Dnyt-per" title=
=3D"More Articles by Paul Krugman" class=3D"meta-per" style=3D"color: rgb(0=
, 0, 102); text-decoration: none; ">PAUL KRUGMAN</a></h6>
<div id=3D"articleBody"><p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-=
top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-hei=
ght: 24px; "><br></p><p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top=
: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height=
: 24px; ">
For decades the story of technology has been dominated, in the popular mind=
 and to a large extent in reality, by computing and the things you can do w=
ith it. Moore=92s Law =97 in which the price of computing power falls rough=
ly 50 percent every 18 months =97 has powered an ever-expanding range of ap=
plications, from faxes to Facebook.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">Our mastery=
 of the material world, on the other hand, has advanced much more slowly. T=
he sources of energy, the way we move stuff around, are much the same as th=
ey were a generation ago.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">But that ma=
y be about to change. We are, or at least we should be, on the cusp of an e=
nergy transformation, driven by the rapidly falling cost of solar power. Th=
at=92s right, solar power.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">If that sur=
prises you, if you still think of solar power as some kind of hippie fantas=
y, blame our fossilized political system, in which fossil fuel producers ha=
ve both powerful political allies and a powerful propaganda machine that de=
nigrates alternatives.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">Speaking of=
 propaganda: Before I get to solar, let=92s talk briefly about hydraulic fr=
acturing, a k a fracking.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">Fracking =
=97 injecting high-pressure fluid into rocks deep underground, inducing the=
 release of fossil fuels =97 is an impressive technology. But it=92s also a=
 technology that imposes large costs on the public. We know that it produce=
s toxic (and radioactive) wastewater that contaminates drinking water; ther=
e is reason to suspect, despite industry denials, that it also contaminates=
 groundwater; and the heavy trucking required for fracking inflicts major d=
amage on roads.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">Economics 1=
01 tells us that an industry imposing large costs on third parties should b=
e required to =93internalize=94 those costs =97 that is, to pay for the dam=
age it inflicts, treating that damage as a cost of production. Fracking mig=
ht still be worth doing given those costs. But no industry should be held h=
armless from its impacts on the environment and the nation=92s infrastructu=
re.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">Yet what th=
e industry and its defenders demand is, of course, precisely that it be let=
 off the hook for the damage it causes. Why? Because we need that energy! F=
or example, the industry-backed organization=A0<a target=3D"_" href=3D"http=
://energyfromshale.org/" style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: n=
one; ">energyfromshale.org</a>=A0declares that =93there are only two sides =
in the debate: those who want our oil and natural resources developed in a =
safe and responsible way; and those who don=92t want our oil and natural ga=
s resources developed at all.=94</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">So it=92s w=
orth pointing out that special treatment for fracking makes a mockery of fr=
ee-market principles. Pro-fracking politicians claim to be against subsidie=
s, yet letting an industry impose costs without paying compensation is in e=
ffect a huge subsidy. They say they oppose having the government =93pick wi=
nners,=94 yet they demand special treatment for this industry precisely bec=
ause they claim it will be a winner.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">And now for=
 something completely different: the success story you haven=92t heard abou=
t.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">These days,=
 mention solar power and you=92ll probably hear cries of =93Solyndra!=94 Re=
publicans have tried to make the failed solar panel company both a symbol o=
f government waste =97 although claims of a major scandal are nonsense =97 =
and a stick with which to beat renewable energy.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">But Solyndr=
a=92s failure was actually caused by technological success: the price of so=
lar panels is dropping fast, and Solyndra couldn=92t keep up with the compe=
tition. In fact, progress in solar panels has been so dramatic and sustaine=
d that, as a blog post at Scientific American=A0<a title=3D"Article about c=
ost of solar." href=3D"http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/=
03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/" style=
=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none; ">put it</a>, =93there=92=
s now frequent talk of a =91Moore=92s law=92 in solar energy,=94 with price=
s adjusted for inflation falling around 7 percent a year.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">This has al=
ready led to rapid growth in solar installations, but even more change may =
be just around the corner. If the downward trend continues =97 and if anyth=
ing it seems to be accelerating =97 we=92re just a few years from the point=
 at which electricity from solar panels becomes cheaper than electricity ge=
nerated by burning coal.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">And if we p=
riced coal-fired power right, taking into account the huge health and other=
 costs it imposes, it=92s likely that we would already have passed that tip=
ping point.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">But will ou=
r political system delay the energy transformation now within reach?</p><p =
style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px=
; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">
Let=92s face it: a large part of our political class, including essentially=
 the entire G.O.P., is deeply invested in an energy sector dominated by fos=
sil fuels, and actively hostile to alternatives. This political class will =
do everything it can to ensure subsidies for the extraction and use of foss=
il fuels, directly with taxpayers=92 money and indirectly by letting the in=
dustry off the hook for environmental costs, while ridiculing technologies =
like solar.</p>
<p style=3D"color: black; font-size: 1.2em; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 24px; ">So what you=
 need to know is that nothing you hear from these people is true. Fracking =
is not a dream come true; solar is now cost-effective. Here comes the sun, =
if we=92re willing to let it in.</p>
<div><br></div><div class=3D"articleCorrection" style=3D"margin-bottom: 2.8=
em; "></div></div></span></div>
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To view the Sierra Club List Terms & Conditions, see:
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