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Date: Mon, 16 Nov 1998 12:01:59 -0500
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Subject: WWN: Worldwatch climate brief
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NEWS FROM THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE

Vital Signs Brief 98-3

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE JUMPS OFF CHART

The average temperature of the earth's atmosphere hit the highest level ev=
er
recorded in the first two-thirds of 1998, literally jumping off the charts=
.
Six of the first eight months of the year were the warmest since
records began in 1866.

The accelerating pace of climate change is out of step with the glacial pa=
ce
of
climate negotiations, which have been frozen since the Kyoto Protocol was
crafted a year ago. "Unless the government officials who gather in Buenos
Aires
November 2 for a new round of climate negotiations can plug the loopholes =
in
the
Protocol and pave the way for its ratification," say Worldwatch researcher=
s
Christopher Flavin and Seth Dunn, "they face serious risk that it will nev=
er
be
adopted, nullifying a decade of efforts to protect the climate.  If nothin=
g of
consequence happens in Buenos Aires, that in itself will be big news."

********************
A graph of global temperature from 1866-1998 can be found
at the Worldwatch web site, http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/981029a.html.

**********************
Even before this year, the 14 hottest years on record have occurred since
1980.
And researchers from the University of Massachusetts say that based on the
analysis of tree rings, the recent temperatures are the warmest in 600 yea=
rs.

Scientists believe that we are in effect creating a more feverish planet b=
y
adding billions of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.  The
symptoms-higher temperatures and more hot and dry spells-are likely to be =
seen
in the form of more severe weather.  One factor in the extreme weather of =
1998
was the periodic El Ni=F1o warming of the eastern Pacific.  But the severi=
ty of
the recent El Ni=F1o-the most extreme so far-may itself be a manifestation=
 of
human-induced climate change.

Some 56 countries have been hit by severe floods this year, and at least 4=
5
were
stricken by drought.  China was particularly hard hit, suffering an estima=
ted
$36 billion in losses due to the flooding of the Yangtze river basin-equal=
 to
near 5 percent of the country's annual economic output.  An estimated 2,50=
0
Chinese were killed and another 56 million displaced by the floods, the
country's worst in 44 years.

Bangladesh was hit by an unusually long and severe monsoon season, which l=
eft
two-thirds of the country, including much of the capital, Dhaka, underwate=
r
for
over a month, leaving 21 million people homeless.  Nor was the host countr=
y
for
the Buenos Aires climate meetings spared.   Floods in Argentina and Paragu=
ay
in
1998 cost $2.5 billion, and threatened the region's wheat and soybean crop=
s.

Worldwide economic losses from storms, floods, droughts and other
weather-related natural disasters totaled an estimated $72 billion during =
the
first 7 months of 1997-which already exceeded the record of $60 billion fo=
r
the
full 12 months of 1996.

A more unstable climate is also causing record-breaking heat waves.  One
hundred
Texans died in a prolonged summer heat spell during which temperatures in
Dallas
rose above 35 degrees Celsius for weeks on end.  An estimated 3,000 people
died
in India's most intense heat wave in 50 years.

Climate disruption is leading to the spread of infectious diseases, accord=
ing
to
Paul Epstein of the Harvard Medical School.  Rising temperatures and more
persistent rainfall allow tropical and subtropical diseases to move into n=
ew
areas.   In the past year, tens of thousands of Africans were hit by Rift
Valley
Fever, and 200 were killed, after the heaviest rains since 1961.  The Worl=
d
Health Organization has documented "quantitative leaps" in the incidence o=
f
malaria in the past several years.  Outbreaks of hantavirus and cholera ha=
ve
occurred in the region immediately surrounding Buenos Aires.

One of the planet's most prominent "hotspots" is just a few thousand miles
from
the southern tip of Argentina: Antarctica.  The peninsula has warmed up by=
 2.5
degrees Celsius since the mid-1940s.  According to a research team led by =
G.D.
Clow of the U.S. Geological Survey, Antarctica is warmer now than at any t=
ime
in
the last 4,000 years.

This past March, a 200-square-kilometer block of ice fell from the Larsen =
B
ice
shelf, pushing its size to an historical minimum.  In October, an iceberg
7,125
square kilometers in area-larger than the U.S. state of Delaware-separated
from
the Ronne Ice Shelf.  Scientists with the British Antarctic Survey believe
that
the Larsen B shelf may be on the verge of entering  an "irreversible retre=
at
phase."  They are also concerned about the collapse of the larger West
Antarctic
ice sheet, which could raise sea levels by as much as 5 meters and inundat=
e
coastal regions.

Glaciers outside Antarctica are shrinking, too.  Half the glacier ice in t=
he
European Alps has disappeared in the last century.  The famous ice field i=
n
America's Glacier National Park is shrinking fast, as are the glaciers in =
the
Patagonian Andes along the Argentine border.

Accelerated temperature change is giving an ironic twist to our notion of
"glacial pace."  As climate change picks up speed, it is the international
political process that is now moving at the pace we used to associate with
large
chunks of ice.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Articles from a special climate issue of World?Watch magazine may be
downloaded
from the Institute's web site at http://www.worldwatch.org.

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